According to RAND, “RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the “group response,” after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.”

We may establish scales for each factor, including rareness, historical and cultural significance, quality of jade, workmanship, size in the range index of 1 to 10 to reach weighted average (It should be noted that the indexes of historical and cultural significance and rareness should overwrite the other indexes). The questionnaire will be sent to various experts.  To assign each index a monetary value, we may reach an appraisal value .

德尔菲法（Delphi method）是一种结构化的决策支持技术，它的目的是在信息收集过程中，通过多位专家的独立的反复主观判断，获得相对客观的信息、意见和见解。

调查组通过匿名方式对选定专家组进行多轮意见徵询。调查组对每一轮的专家意见进行汇总整理，并将整理过的材料再寄给每位专家，供专家们分析判断，专家在整理后材料的基础上提出新的论证意见。如此多次反复，意见逐步趋于一致，得到一个比较一致的并且可靠性较大的结论或方案。

德尔菲法的要点是：被征询意见的专家采用匿名发表意见，专家之间不可互相讨论，不发生横向联系。从而避免专家意见向少数影响大的专家意见趋同。

You are invited to join the expert team. Please email me: palaceantique@gmail.com